Retail e-commerce market seen topping $6.19 trillion by 2030

By AI, Created 2:45 PM UTC, May 22, 2026, /AGP/ – The Business Research Company forecasts the global retail e-commerce market will reach $6,189.51 billion by 2030, growing at an 11.2% CAGR. Asia Pacific is expected to be the largest region, while the U.S. will remain the biggest country and pure marketplaces the largest segment.

Why it matters: - The forecast points to retail e-commerce becoming a roughly $6.2 trillion market by 2030, underscoring how much more consumer spending is shifting online. - Retail e-commerce is projected to make up about 80% of the broader e-commerce market by 2030. - The segment is expected to represent nearly 5% of the total retail and wholesale industry value by 2030.

What happened: - The Business Research Company released a market outlook on retail e-commerce on May 22, 2026. - The report says the global retail e-commerce market is expected to reach $6,189.51 billion by 2030. - The report pegs the market’s compound annual growth rate at 11.2% through 2030. - Asia Pacific is projected to be the largest region in 2030, with a market value of $2,285 billion. - The USA is projected to be the largest country in the market in 2030, with a value of $1,548 billion. - Pure marketplace is projected to be the largest type segment in 2030, accounting for 52% of the market, or $3,224 billion. - The source includes a sample request form and full report page.

The details: - Asia Pacific is expected to grow from $1,237 billion in 2025 to $2,285 billion in 2030, a 13% CAGR. - The region’s growth is linked to digital payment expansion, higher smartphone penetration, cross-border online retail, rising disposable income, and delivery infrastructure upgrades. - The U.S. market is expected to grow from $1,091 billion in 2025 to $1,548 billion in 2030, a 7% CAGR. - The U.S. growth outlook is tied to subscription shopping, omnichannel retail adoption, social commerce, same-day and instant delivery, and AI-driven personalization. - Retail e-commerce is segmented by type into pure marketplace, hybrid marketplace, brand, and retail chain. - The market is segmented by sector into organized and unorganized. - Distribution channels include supermarkets and hypermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores, department stores, e-commerce, and other channels. - The report says pure marketplaces are supported by more third-party sellers, consumer demand for variety and pricing, asset-light scaling, marketplace ad revenue, and stronger network effects. - The pure marketplace segment is projected to grow by $1,322 billion from 2025 to 2030. - The hybrid marketplace segment is projected to grow by $821 billion over the same period. - The brand segment is projected to grow by $206 billion. - The retail chain segment is projected to grow by $193 billion. - The report says the biggest growth drivers through 2030 are internet and smartphone penetration, digital payment adoption, and logistics and last-mile delivery expansion. - Internet and smartphone penetration is projected to contribute about 1.0% annual growth. - Digital payment ecosystem growth is projected to contribute about 0.9% annual growth. - Logistics and last-mile delivery expansion is projected to contribute about 0.8% annual growth.

Between the lines: - The projections suggest marketplaces remain the clearest winner because they combine third-party selection, advertising revenue, and scale economics. - Asia Pacific’s lead reflects faster structural adoption in emerging markets, while the U.S. remains the largest single market because of mature consumer demand and delivery infrastructure. - The report’s emphasis on payments and logistics shows e-commerce growth depends as much on infrastructure as on consumer demand.

What’s next: - The report expects online retail adoption to keep accelerating as internet access, mobile shopping, and payment systems improve. - Continued investment in fulfillment, automation, and localized delivery networks is likely to shape which operators capture the next wave of growth. - The Business Research Company says the market opportunities over the next five years are concentrated in pure marketplaces, hybrid marketplaces, brands, and retail chains.

The bottom line: - Retail e-commerce is on track to remain one of the largest and fastest-growing segments in global retail, with marketplaces, payments, and delivery networks driving the next phase of expansion.